Google is Right, Google is wrong

My commentary about Google, AI and predictions

Google is Right:

Google is extremely successful company. they have monopoly or very large marketshare in Google the search engine, Android mobile OS and Playstore, online advertising, Chrome Browser, Gmail email hosting, youtube video streaming, Google Maps, Google Analytics.

Google is integrated in nearly every website, google analytics, adsense, free fonts, meta tags, sitemap.xml, robots.txt, google maps

Google changing algorithms can change fortune of many companies, coming on first page for a keyword can make or break a business, else you have to pay a google tax via paid ads to get in front of the world and web traffic.

Google is Wrong:

Google Search:

google search has not improved significantly in over a decade. number of ads keeps increasing, you have to scroll down to see the organic result, you have to build google search skills if you want to get to the right result. google search is not a search engine, it is a marketing platform for google to sell ads.

I have been using internet from 1997, the search engines of that day put more ads and less relevancy and when google came with page rank, it did very well.

Google result search count is a lie. Google is not a search engine, it is a marketing platform for google to sell ads.

You get the results based on what google wants you to see plus the ads, not what you actually intended to search for. even there sites which have done SEO optimization or keyword stuffing get priority over the sites which are actually relevant to the search.

My search sequence it what I am planning to search, then I will think for what keywords I might get the result, then I get some results not I wanted, I will add quotes to certain phrases, then add negative words, then on advanced option choose show results from last 1 year. Then sort through the results after skipping the ads from competitors using the same keywords and hardly any visual clue that it is a ad. top result will be wikipedia, stackoverflow or some python blogging site which has SEO optimised for all the keywords.Then click on the page the open that tab and read the content, you may get lucky and get the result you wanted, else you will have to go back to google and search again. and after bunch of search with hundred of tab open, chrome will consume all the memory.

Google Products:

google does not have inhouse successful consumer product capability, except for search, and gmail nearly every prouct is acquired product.

google kills and abandon projects, they have no incentive to improve the user experience.

google product failures are pretty common:

google wave, google reader, google plus, google glass, google buzz, google hangouts, google talk, google chrome OS.

this site lists 282 products killed by google.

https://killedbygoogle.com

Google Research and Open Source:

Google has many researchers and phd's , they have released many research papers, possibly internal research projects.

Google hardly releases anything open source, whatever they do is tightly integrated with their own products and services. They have no incentive to release anything open source, they have no incentive to improve the search engine, they have no incentive to improve the user experience.

OPENAI story:

GPT3 was available since may 2020, github copilot preview launched in october 2021 and public release by june 2022

chatGPT was launched in 30th November 2022, which got phenomenal response and growing to become the fastest growing consumer product in history.

GPT3 has been supplanted by engine which powers chatGPT, which is 10x more powerful in conversational GPT3. This API cost has reduced 96% in last 2 years. now you can get 1 million token equivalent content for 2$. With this price and api access daily nearly 100 product prototypes are being launched daily.

Large adoption of OpenAI technology happening:

Microsoft is using chatgpt and other API's across all their products.

Bing is using chatgpt inside bing search.

microsoft azure exclusively offers OpenAI API as a service. also Microsoft now owns 49% of OpenAI, with 10 billion dollar investment, and lockin for Azure cloud.

Salesforce is using chatgpt inside slack.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/salesforce-add-chatgpt-slack-part-openai-partnership-2023-03-07/

Salesforce offers Einstein GPT service

https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardnieva/2023/03/07/salesforce-einstein-gpt-slack/

Snapchat is using chatgpt .

https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/27/23614959/snapchat-my-ai-chatbot-chatgpt-openai-plus-subscription

consumer brands are using chatgpt:

Coco Cola

https://fortune.com/2023/03/08/coca-cola-mattel-snapchat-adopting-ai-despite-expert-warning/

Bain & Company has announced openai partnership

https://www.bain.com/vector-digital/partnerships-alliance-ecosystem/openai-alliance/

Discord planning launching chatgpt powered ai .

https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/09/discord-updates-its-bot-with-chatgpt-like-features-rolls-out-ai-generated-conversation-summaries-and-more/

Google management Issues:

Google is no more a founder lead company which can take risk and deliver for end customer, it is trillion dollar company which is run by a bunch of MBA's and lawyers who are not technical and do not understand the end customer. Their focus is shareholders and not end customer. demand for resignation of CEO Sundar Pichai is growing, he was peace time CEO and not a war time CEO.

My Prediction:

Negative for Google:

a) Consumers who start trying and liking chatgpt or chat style interfaces will never go back to google search, they will use chat for all their search needs.

b) When google launches its AI, their search revenue will shrink by 30% in 2 years.

c) Google has starting investing in AI product companies it would need to acquire companies which have mind share and with consumers.

d) Google has to offer innovative AI services as API at competitive price to compete with Microsoft and Amazon.

e) They already face antitrust investigation in US and EU, they will face more antitrust investigation in future.

What google will fight with:

a) Google has few advantages, it is installed on billions of phones, browsers, maps, gmail email accounts and youtube .

b) they have built customer hardware TPU, which is very efficient for AI.

c) they have huge amount of data, which is used for training AI models.

d) they have handled internet sized data for over 2 decades, have data center capabilities

e) they have a 100 billion war chest and google search and youtube can pull revenues for couple of more years at current levels.

Conclusion:

This is pretty early to identify all the companies who will be impacted by AI, but it is clear that google is not going to be the winner in consumer AI, they will be fighting for survival, reduced share in search and big hit on profit margins .